The Future of TikTok
It’s been a hectic weekend in the social media world but, if you aren’t a daily TikTok user, you may have not even noticed. (I admit, that may be a stretch.) The TikTok ban has been in the headlines for months and I have a hard time believing anyone on the internet was left unaware. Still, I don’t think there’s a broad understanding of what actually happened and how we should respond to it going forward. So please, allow me to lay that out for you. If you doubt my credibility, I offer you this whole-ass eBook as proof that I know what I’m talking about.
First, a timeline.
July 2020 - Then-President Donald Trump suggests he’s considering a ban on TikTok in “retaliation of China’s handling of the coronovirus.”
August 2020 - Then-President Donald Trump signs an executive order giving TikTok’s parent company ByteDance 90 days to divest its US assets.
February 2021 - Then-President Joe Biden postpones all legal actions related to the banning of TikTok
March 2024 - A “sell-or-be-banned” bill picks up steam in Congress and is passed by the house in a bipartisan roll call of 352-65.
April 2024 - The Senate passes the same bill 79-18.
May 2024 - ByteDance sues the U.S. Government, claiming the bill to ban TikTok is unconstitutional.
Dec 6, 2024 - A federal appeals court upholds the law banning TikTok
Dec 27, 2024 - President-Elect Donald Trump asks the Supreme Court to pause the potential TikTok ban
Jan 17, 2025 - The Supreme Court uphods the law banning TikTok, setting a ban to take effect on January 19th, 2025.
Jan 17, 2025 - Then-President Joe Biden announces that his administration will not enforce the ban and will leave the decision up to the incoming administration
Jan 18, 2025 - TikTok voluntarily restricts access to US users for approximately 15 hours.
Jan 19, 2025 - TikTok voluntarily reinstate access to US users, thanking “President Trump” for his commitment to keeping TikTok online. It is important to note that, at this time, Donald Trump is not yet president.
Jan 20, 2025 - I write this blog.
Great, now you’re caught up. Did anything jump out to you? God damn, I hope something did. Look, the purpose of this blog is not to discuss political theater, propaganda, or grifter-ism, it is to discuss social media and content marketing. So that’s what I’m going to do. If you want my opinions on the other things, email me and ask at matt@bahnfyrepr.com.
A Change is coming
I think it is safe to say we are about to see some major changes on TikTok. Remember that the initial threat “sell or be banned.” While there hasn’t been a public announcement regarding sale, the company kept by TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew leads me to believe he’s made some friends in high places. It’s also worth noting that, in the lead-up to the ban, Instagram announced it was adding some familiar-looking features. Oh, and Meta announced they’d be launching an app to rival ByteDance’s CapCut, which was banned alongside TikTok.
Considering the TikTok ban was Donald Trump’s idea to begin with, it seems odd that he would so suddenly rally to delay it. Or, it would seem odd, if there weren't some major changes in the pipeline. Fully speculation here, but my guess is that TikTok explained to the Trump Administration how they could boost messaging through their algorithm. Meta and X, via Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk respectively, have been vocal allies of Trump over the past year. I’d be willing to bet that TikTok, via Shou Zi Chew, has earned a seat at the table with a promise to conform to the habits of these other apps.
So what changes are coming? Well there’s no way to know until they happen, but here are my guesses. I think, over the next year, we’ll see…
A significantly higher ratio of promoted content
A significantly higher ad rate
A shift in the algorithm prioritizing follower count over viewed count
A shift in the algorithm making it more difficult to discover new accounts
A shift in the algorithm deprioritizing content deemed to be “radical”
Why are these my guesses? Because this is what has happened every other time.
This has happened before
Allow me to introduce you, if you haven’t encountered it before, to the concept of “enshittification.” Coined by author Cory Doctorow in 2022, “enshittification” refers to the decay of products or services brought on by reductions in quality as a consequence of profit seeking. If you’ve been on the internet for more than, I don’t know, six months, you’ve probably witnessed this phenomenon. This has been the downfall of a number of platforms, but for others, it’s become the new normal. Platforms like Vine, Periscope and MySpace didn’t have enough runway to get shitty. Platforms like Facebook, Twitter (X) and YouTube had so much runway that they were able to launch big shitty jumbo jets.
Let’s go back to my five predictions and see if we can pick them out in the history of another platform. Personally, I feel like it’s easiest with YouTube. Why? Because if you’ve watched a YouTube video in the last 5 years, you’ve watched an ad. YouTube didn’t used to have those. Now if you’ve watched a YouTube video in the last year, you’ve probably thought to yourself “wow, there are a lot of ads in this video.” Here’s an article about that but, to be clear, you have. So there’s your check on points one and two, more promoted content and more ads.
For my next trick, I’d like to direct your attention to Facebook. If you don’t mind, go ahead and open Facebook for me and tell me how many posts you see before the second post you see from a friend. Facebook usually populates your feed with a friends post first, so let’s look for the second. I just ran this experiment on my personal page and saw six posts between the two that came from someone I know. Five of those posts were suggested to me from influencer accounts and groups. The sixth was a sponsored ad. I’ll do the math for you, that’s 75% content based on app suggestion and 25% based on user preference. In my opinion, that’s a check on points three and four, algorithmic shifts favoring high follow accounts.
My last point about deprioritizing “radical” content can be a little more difficult to point to in a single example, but it should be very clear to you if you’ve paid attention. If you need more, google “Cambridge Analytica” and fall down that rabbit hole.
This will happen again
The internet wasn’t built for your benefit. There is a common misconception that these digital platforms, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok and the like, are designed as gathering spaces for their users. That is categorically untrue. These platforms are businesses. They are services or products. They are owned by companies whose end goal is to make money. There is a massive amount of benefit to be found amongst these platforms, but they are not built for your benefit.
This “enshittification” is the slow churn of all things on the internet. Ideas are born, they’re cultivated, they’re monetized and they die. I think TikTok will have a long, robust lifespan, but I do think this is the beginning of its inevitable end. Within the next five years, we’ll likely see another social app rise. It will be different in some unique way that draws attention and, by extension, users. Other outlets will do their best to imitate the uniqueness of this new platform and slowly TikTok will become the “old school” social media outlet.
So What Should We Do?
“The same thing we do every night, try to take over the world.” - The Brain
When it comes to posting content on the internet, for marketing, entertainment or anything else, the creator is at the will of the platform. While that can be a hard pill to swallow, it’s a pill you have to get down. The internet wasn’t built for your benefit, it also does not care about you. I’m sorry I had to be the one to tell you, but I hope it helps.
I hope it helps because it should take some of the sting out of these cataclysmic digital shifts. TikTok going dark and (potentially) selling out is nothing personal and it has nothing to do with you. These changes come and go and the best thing you can do is prepare for the next one. How do you prepare? You create your own footprint.
2015 was a rough year for anyone trying to make a career on YouTube. Changes to the algorithm and ad payouts decimated many small creators. Those that survived did so because they existed elsewhere on the internet. Be prepared for these TikTok shifts to bring on a similar outcome and be prepared for the path to survival to be the same. If you are heavily invested into TikTok, it’s time to dilute. Establish yourself on a second or third platform and create a website if you haven’t already. It doesn’t need to be more than a landing page, but you need a stable, unchanging outlet to direct your audience to, no matter what shifts arise.
If you aren’t heavily invested in TikTok, you likely had a much less stressful weekend than the rest of us. I’m jealous. That said, I have a take away for you as well. Don’t think of TikTok as a young, burgeoning social platform full of mystery and wonder. We are well beyond that. Do think of TikTok as a strategic outlet and part of your potential footprint on the internet. The keyword there is “part.”
In Conclusion
When I was in high school, there was a gas station that kids would frequent for after school slushies and cigarettes. Kids would congregate against the sidewall of the gas station after school for at least an hour, eating snacks and underage smoking. The owner hated these kids, so he made it clear that he’d prosecute anyone loitering outside his store. So the kids found a new place to hang out. Then the gas station closed because the kids weren’t there to buy slushies and cigarettes every day. It was always a shitty gas station.
If you enjoyed this series and haven’t already, I humbly request you subscribe to my newsletter. One email a week and no spam, I promise. It will keep you updated on when I write more things like this and all of the other content I produce.